Friday, September 25, 2009

Aas usual Israel gets no credit...

As seen in www.strategyPage.com:

COUNTER-TERRORISM: No Credit Where Credit Is Due

September 25, 2009: For political, diplomatic and anti-Semitic reasons, it's not likely that the Israelis will get the credit they deserve for the defeat of Islamic terrorist groups throughout the world. But it was Israeli concepts and tactics that helped bring Iraq IED (roadside bomb) casualties down from a high of 84 a month in May of 2007, to a low of 9 in May of 2008. While the new armored vehicles (MRAPs) and other technology (jammers and UAVs) played a role, it was the Israeli concept of going for the brains behind the bombs, that tore the heart out of the Islamic terrorist organizations in Iraq. The same approach is being used successfully elsewhere, from Somalia, to Saudi Arabia, to Afghanistan and on to the Philippines and Indonesia. Islamic nations tend to credit the United States (if they credit any foreigners at all) for these successful tactics. But it was Israel that pioneered this approach, and made it clear that it worked, and how.
The armed forces of the U.S. and Israel have long worked together, to exchange tactics, techniques and technology. One of the items the Israelis shared was the tactics they developed to defeat a Palestinian suicide bombing campaign that began in 2000 (after Palestinian radicals refused to accept a recently negotiated peace deal).
The Palestinian terrorist groups still say they are going to destroy Israel. But as a practical matter, the current round of Palestinian terrorist violence is over. You can see this by the sharp decline in successful terrorist attacks, and the frequent pronouncements from the terrorists groups that they are going to behave, for a while anyway. What the terrorists really want is to avoid any more of the Israeli tactics that shut down their terrorist operations. This included going after terrorist leaders and technical specialists, and either capturing or (failing that) killing them. Raids and air attacks were made against buildings used by the terrorists, and tight security on Israelis borders were instituted. This last measure crushed the Palestinian economy, which put popular pressure on the terrorists to stop their attacks, and promise to keep it that way.
The Israelis also set up an increasingly effective intelligence system inside Palestinian territories. What the Israelis basically did was "take the war to the enemy." This is an application of the old maxim, "the best defense is a good offense." This particular war is still going on, but the Israelis only adopted their winning tactics in 2003 and two years later the terrorists were rendered largely ineffective.
Egypt and Algeria defeated Islamic terrorists during the 1990s using traditional methods (attacking everything in sight), and it took longer and was bloodier. The Egyptians defeated the Moslem Brotherhood (and the survivors fled to help found al Qaeda). Algeria finally defeated a similar movement only in the past year, the Egyptian campaign took most of the decade. Syria crushed the Moslem Brotherhood in the early 1980s, after five years of violence. These three Arab nations are all police states, and were able to deploy large numbers of police and soldiers that spoke the same language as the terrorists. Israel also had a large number of terrorists who spoke Arabic. Many had grown up in Arab countries, or had parents who had done so. What all these successful campaigns had in common was aggressive tactics that took the battle to the enemy.
For the rest of the world, treating terrorism as if it were just a police matter, allowed the terrorists to continue building support, and the ability to launch more attacks. But by going into the terrorist neighborhoods, you disrupt their planning and recruiting efforts, and eventually destroy the network of support. The United States clung to the police approach throughout the 1990s, and the attacks continued. Only after September 11, 2001, was the war carried to the terrorist heartland, and the attacks in the U.S., and against American targets elsewhere, ceased. The terrorists were forced to defend their base, and in doing so they killed many Moslems, and turned Moslem public opinion against them.
But going into Iraq worked a lot more effectively when the Israeli tactics were applied. This not only killed or captured key terrorist leaders and technicians, but demoralized many potential Islamic terrorists. Al Qaeda was exposed as a bunch of remorseless murderers who enthusiastically killed Moslems as well as infidels (non-Moslems). That cost al Qaeda their public support in the Moslem world, while the Israeli tactics cost al Qaeda its key people.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

New rules make it harder to finance condos

From the Sun Sentinel:

Associations should check whether their properties are approved

It may be a buyer's market for those looking to purchase a South Florida condominium, but a new FHA rule putting an end to "spot approvals" for home loans may burst the shopping bubble and make it much more difficult to qualify for a loan.

By extension, the same rule may also mean more bad news for condo sellers, already suffering through a bad economy which has sent property values into the Dumpster, since it impedes buyers' ability to purchase. And the financial pain could eventually spread to all Florida homeowners by way of higher property taxes, say experts.

What is happening: Beginning Nov. 1, a new Federal Housing Administration rule goes into effect that disallows a loan process called "spot approvals," which gave loan underwriters the authority to approve individual units rather than an entire building.

The reason such authority was so helpful to buyers is the cost and paperwork for a condo association to get an entire building approved by the FHA is onerous at best, costing tens of thousands of dollars for appraisals, structural engineering reports and other reports.

Spot approvals, in comparison, only require an association representative to spend 15 minutes filling out a single-page form. Those loans are prized by buyers because they generally have lower interest rates and require much lower down payments, about 3.5 percent of the purchase price compared with conventional bank loans, which may require up to 30 percent down.

Now, without spot approvals, condo buyers and owners will not be able to get an FHA loan for units in a non-approved building and will have to rely on conventional bank loans or pay cash, said Theresa M. Schmitz, a senior underwriter for Amerifirst in Fort Lauderdale.

"This poses a potential downward trend in condo values because many people can't afford to put such a large down payment down on a condo," Schmitz said. "And if there is a smaller pool of buyers, the market value of condos will decline even further and a condo unit will only be worth what a cash buyer is willing to pay for it."

Ripple effect: It also stands to compound the current real estate market problems that have caused cities to raise tax rates, Schmitz said. "Single family homeowners may think this doesn't affect them, but indirectly it will. When the condo assessed valuations plummet, our collective tax base will decline. Single family homeowners will pick up the slack with a hike in the millage rates and property taxes."

What you can do: Board members should check the federal Housing and Urban Development (the department that oversees the FHA) website https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/condlook.cfm to determine whether their condominium complex is on HUD's approved list.

Daniel Vasquez can be reached at condocolumn@sunsentinel.com or 954-356-4219 (Broward County) or 561-243-6686 (Palm Beach County). His condo column runs every Wednesday in the Local section and atsunsentinel.com/condos. Check out Daniel's Condos & HOAs blog for news, information and tips related to life in community associations at sunsentinel.com/condoblog You can also read his consumer column every Monday in Your Money and at sunsentinel.com/vasquez. The Sun Sentinel is hosting a Condos & HOAs Town Hall meeting on Oct. 29 at Nova Southeastern University. Submit a question for our panel of experts online athttp://www.sun-sentinel.com/condoquestions.

Green shoots in real estate? How about record delinquencies!

If you watch the news or read the paper, both of whom depend on developers and real estate agents for advertising, you hear about the real estate market "bottoming out." While that may be true in Nashville, Fargo, or Charlotte, it is not the case here in Florida where the mortgage foreclosures keep coming in, up to 30 a day. Here is a tidbit from Reuters on mortgage delinquencies hitting a record high...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - High U.S. unemployment keeps pushing up the rate of mortgage delinquencies, which could in turn drive personal bankruptcies and home foreclosures, monthly data from the Equifax Inc credit bureau showed on Monday.

Among U.S. homeowners with mortgages, a record 7.58 percent were at least 30 days late on payments in August, up from 7.32 percent in July, according to the data obtained exclusively by Reuters.

August marked the fourth consecutive monthly increase in delinquencies, and the report showed an accelerating pace. By comparison, 4.89 percent of mortgages were 30 days past due in August 2008, while in August 2007, the rate was 3.44 percent, Equifax data showed.

The rate of subprime mortgage delinquencies now tops 41 percent, up from about 39 percent in each of the prior five months.

The results, which correlate with consumer bankruptcy filings, suggest U.S. homeowners remain under financial stress despite signs of improving sentiment and fundamentals in the U.S. housing market.

August bankruptcy filings were up 32 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 35 percent year-over-year increase in July.

Still, while more Americans were late with mortgage payments, they are keeping up with other bills. The proportion of credit card accounts at least 60 days past due was down in August for the third straight month, while subprime card delinquencies also fell.

That improvement in delinquency rates partly reflects risk-aversion among issuers, which have cut the number of cards by 82 million, or 19 percent, over the past year, while slashing credit limits by $721 billion, to about $3.6 trillion.

The number of new cards being issued is down even more dramatically. In June, 2.6 million new cards were issued, compared with 4.7 million a year earlier.

Lenders are increasingly targeting consumers with high credit scores, Equifax found. While in 2007, about one in five new cards went to people with a credit score above 760, such consumers account for two in five new cards in 2009. Equifax found similar trends in auto loans.

"The data from August further confirms that we're witnessing a dramatic change in consumer habits," said Dann Adams, president of Equifax's Consumer Information Solutions group.

Total consumer debt is down more than $300 billion, or almost 3 percent, from its peak in September 2008, Adams said, while the savings rate is nearing 5 percent, "a level we haven't seen in years."

Friday, August 28, 2009

Cancellation of Cable Contracts made by Developers

My thanks to Terry Delahunty, a law school classmate of mine for the following. Go Gators!

NEW APPELLATE DECISION AFFECTING DEVELOPERS OF CONDOS
AND CONDO ASSOCIATIONS
An important Florida Appellate Court decision was issued Wednesday upholding the ability of a condominium association to terminate a cable agreement entered by the developer prior to turnover. Several trial courts have previously held that a condo association could use Section 718.302, Florida Statutes, to terminate a cable agreement entered by the developer prior to turnover of the condominium association to residents. Section 718.302, provides in pertinent part: "any contract made by an association prior to assumption of control of the association by unit owners other than the developer, that provides for the operation, maintenance, or management of a condominium association or property serving the unit owners of a condominium shall be fair and reasonable, and such grant, reservation, or contract may be cancelled by unit owners other than the developer: (a) ... by concurrence of the owners of not less than 75% of the voting interests other than the voting interests owned by the developer..."

In Comcast of Florida, L.P. vs. L'Ambiance Beach Condominium Association, Inc., No. 4D08-2326 (FL 4th DCA August 26, 2009), the District Court of Appeals for the Fourth District affirmed a Broward County Court decision finding that a condominium association could rely on Section 718.302 to terminate a cable agreement entered by the developer prior to turnover upon more than 75% of the unit owners voting to cancel the agreement. Comcast had argued that cable agreements are not for the "operation, maintenance, or management" of the association or property serving the unit owners and thus, 718.302 did not apply. Comcast also argued that Section 718.115(d), which provides expressly for terminating cable agreements at the next regular or special meeting after they are entered, should apply. The court rejected Comcast's arguments.

It is our understanding that this is the first appellate court decision in Florida upholding this application of Section 718.302, and thus, becomes a stronger state-wide precedent. Based on this decision, many condo associations will most likely try to get out of many current cable TV agreements, and cable operators and

developers may change their form agreements and business practices relating to entering into such agreements.

Foot dragging by foreclosing lenders

This emphasizes my mantra to act quickly, always, but even more so now....


Postponing the Day of Reckoning

By Kate Berry, American Banker

August 26, 2009

Pick up just about any city's newspaper or turn on any news show, and if the topic is real estate, the banking industry is likely being lambasted for foreclosing on troubled homeowners.

But industry data and anecdotal evidence suggest banks and servicers have been dragging out the process – not rushing to kick people out of their homes.

Granted, the deferrals may not be motivated by compassion, or even political pressure. Rather, banks and mortgage investors want to avoid repossessing hundreds of thousands of homes, which would produce losses and hits to capital.

"The goal is to hold off on foreclosures and take losses as slowly as possible to keep balance sheets up," said Deborah Voelz, the chief financial officer of National Asset Direct Inc., a New York buyer and servicer of distressed loans. "Everyone is looking at what the ultimate loss is going to be and whether it makes sense to hold off another year or two and mitigate the results."

The foreclosure process -- and it is a process -- now takes, on average, 18 months to two years, up from 15 months a year ago, according to Amherst Securities Group LP. Backlogs in county courts and at servicing companies, along with local government moratoriums, have contributed to the delays. But plenty of signs indicate that the mortgage companies themselves are in no hurry to seize their collateral.

Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, Calif., company that monitors foreclosure filings, said banks often start proceedings but then decide "they don't want the property" and suspend the process indefinitely.

Of the 2.3 million homes that received foreclosure notices last year, one-third had been repossessed by yearend, according to RealtyTrac.

Banks also "are allowing borrowers to be delinquent for longer and longer periods of time before initiating foreclosures," Sharga said.

Tom Booker, a senior vice president in the default information unit at First American Corp. in Santa Ana, Calif., concurred. "There are borrowers who are six or eight months in default; they may have exhausted their workout options; but they're put on a forbearance plan because it's an interim to a final resolution, which is foreclosure," he said. "Banks don't want to take the losses now."

Bottom Line Secrets on age restricted communities

Paradise or Purgatory? Is a Retirement Community Right for
You?

Andrew D. Blechman
Americans have retired in droves to age-restricted communities ever
since six model homes opened in Sun City, Arizona, in 1960
-- the first such development in the world. Today, as Sun
City plans a 50th anniversary celebration for its more than
40,000 inhabitants, some 1,500 "leisure retirement
communities" have become a way of life for nearly 12
million people.

While age-restricted communities tend to cluster in sunny
states, they're proliferating everywhere. You may be
surprised to learn that 60% of new retirement communities
are being built in the North. Massachusetts, where I live,
contains 150, with about 200 more proposed.

The largest age-restricted (and gated) retirement community
in the world is The Villages in central Florida.
One-and-one-half times the square mileage of Manhattan and
currently housing 70,000, this flock of "villages" lured
former neighbors of mine, the Andersons, several years ago.
In a one-month stay at The Villages, two weeks of which
were spent at their new home, I did my preliminary research
for Leisureville: Adventures in America's Retirement
Utopias, a study of retirement communities around the
country. My goal: To understand the appeal of a unique way
of living that has been luring our elders away.
http://link.bls.bottomlinesecrets.com/r/HQLGBI/260AZ/5R9NB/MSB3H/HD7PC/SN/t/

INDEPENDENCE AND COMMUNITY

The most prominent type of retirement community, and the
one I studied for my book, focuses on recreation. The
amenities are plentiful, with little waiting for a tennis
court or tee time... and a constant influx of new residents
that encourages bonding and creates instant community.

Grown children feel relieved that Mom and Dad are busy and
happy. Some communities contain continuing-care facilities
for residents who become unable to care for themselves.

While these communities vary widely, they share attributes
that say "paradise" to some -- and "purgatory" to others.

A CERTAIN AGE

Designed for those who prefer a child-free environment,
retirement communities address the needs and desires of the
older set. Minimum age requirements -- usually age 55 --
are strictly enforced. At least one member of each
household must be the minimum age or older. (Filling the
house with unrelated roommates is not allowed.) Guests,
including relatives, under age 18 or 19 may visit for only
a predetermined number of days per year.

Pros: Residents relish the novelty of having their needs
treated as a top priority. A child-free environment ensures
more peace and quiet than ordinary neighborhoods provide.
Seniors feel safe surrounded by age peers.

Cons: Grandchildren's visits are limited. They can never
move in, whatever the family situation. People who enjoy
mingling with others of all types and ages might find the
setting too limiting.

RECREATION 24/7, INCLUDING SEX

Golf, tennis, swimming, Bingo, dances and hobby groups
dominate daily activities in leisure-oriented communities.
An active singles scene includes the never married, the
divorced, the previously widowed and those widowed after
moving in. A relaxed social atmosphere with no work
responsibilities tends to encourage sexual freedom. I have
observed that a good number of older gentlemen, and some
women, regularly seek and find sex partners.

Pros: Life can be all play -- a common retirement fantasy.
Tennis courts, swimming pools and gyms aren't overrun by
the young. Recreational facilities are designed for
less-than-perfect eyesight and physiques.

Cons: People who are less focused on sports and hobbies may
feel alienated, as may retirees who derive significant
pleasure from high culture -- opera, theater, classical
music, a superb public library. Widows and widowers who
haven't dated in 50 years and who dismiss the use of
condoms as solely for contraception are unaware that
sexually transmitted infections, including herpes, syphilis
and AIDS, have infiltrated the senior singles scene.

NEW CONSTRUCTION, LOTS OF RULES

Many retirement communities, being built in ever-increasing
numbers, boast that everything is new. The older ones were
built just as fast and not all that well.

Also, home owners must respect many rules ("deed
restrictions").

Examples: Exterior paint colors and even the height of
shrubs may be prescribed... pets limited to two... lawn
ornaments and window air conditioners banned.

Pros: Modern amenities, including plenty of bathrooms and
closets. Homes designed with few stairs and universal
accessibility.

Deed restrictions ensure that neighborhoods remain clean
and neat. Many home owners consider mandatory conformity a
small price to pay for knowing that they'll never see their
neighbors' car on blocks, swing sets in the yard or gnomes
on the lawn.

Cons: Slapdash construction, including modern versions of
old designs built with today's questionable workmanship,
often lacks charm. Each community's success hinges on
perpetual investment and care by the managing owner. You
may never know whether the developer is about to declare
bankruptcy, as some have, leaving behind partially
completed, thinly populated "communities" with houses that
will probably become increasingly difficult to sell.

PRIVATE OWNERSHIP

The communal areas of most recreational retirement
communities -- the golf courses, the downtown, the streets
-- as well as the empty lots and unsold houses are owned by
their builders (or whomever the builders sell them to).
Special zoning arrangements (these communities bring in
lots of tax revenue for local jurisdictions) may permit
community rules to sidestep state and county laws in many
aspects of life.

Pros: Many residents, delighted with their low per-home
property taxes, feel confident that the owners have a
personal stake in meeting community needs.

Cons: Residents trade the ballot box for the suggestion
box. Residents with a gripe plead their cases before a
corporate board, not elected officials. Don't look in the
local paper or at public meetings for discussions of
serious issues.

Expect to live under a form of "taxation without
representation." Through steadily increasing maintenance
fees, the owners can charge residents for, say, new golf
courses and recreation centers.

ADVICE FOR POTENTIAL BUYERS

If age-restricted retirement community living attracts you,
visit several, staying for a while if you can arrange it. I
learned far more during my four weeks with the Andersons
than any official tour could have shown.

Generally, these communities have wonderful recreational
amenities. But is the intellectual spark bright enough for
you? Can you find a group that reads the kinds of books you
like? Other questions to consider...

Where do you want to be in 20 years? How would you feel
about being far from your family and old friends later in
life?

Can you imagine aging happily there? Might you "age in
place" instead, perhaps having your current home
retrofitted?

Will your house purchase be a good investment, bringing
decent value if you sell?

Monday, August 24, 2009

OT but important

To the extent that anybody actually reads my missives, this is an important one, non condo/hoa related..

I am sickened by comparisons of President Obama to Hitler, including a portrait of him with a similar mustache, and other use of Nazi symbols at health care "forums" that trivialize the memory of those who died in the Holocaust.

I am disgusted by the constant use of the use of the term Holocaust except as it related to the attempt of Nazi Germany to extinguish Jewish DNA, as well as others who were so cruelly put to death.

In the weeks leading up to the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Rabin, many opposed to his policies, solely on the right of the political spectrum, demonstrated with pictures of Rabin with a Hitler moustache, Nazi swastikas, etc., etc. That type of speech encourages people at the fringes of society to conclude that they must "stop" the actor, which lead to his murder. I am deeply afraid of what might happen if the same rhetoric continues here.

One person I discussed this with even commented that Obama is a Socialist, and the Nazis were the "National Socialists" so they are one and the same; what a sap. Nazis were fascists, but the use of the name again dupes to dupes into thinking that this is "Socialism." Some elements of Socialism were present but it was a far cry from what we see in Sweden, but I digress...

I think it's time that we speak out and demand that this vilification stop immediately. This is largely a product of the right wing, and while I am mindful of the people who called President Bush a Nazi, the rhetoric has been ratcheted up to 11.

This type of arguably protected speech under the Constitution puts Jews front and center in the Health Care discussion, like it or not. There is NOTHING that compares to the Holocaust ("Palestinians" compare their treatment under Israeli rule as a "holocaust" if so why are there 2 million of them now and just 250,000 of them in 1948? The Jews of Poland and Europe could have flourished under such treatment!). Why must symbols of the destruction of Jewish society in Europe be used by people in this debate? Shame on you!

Stop it now!